← Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water FractalTier 1
at Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
3
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
7-8-1
overall winrate
46.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1236
· median 1182
· range 1140–1387
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1160
Q3 1335
1508
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
